S&P 500: Current Technical Outlook

The S&P traded in a choppy narrow range last week and closed the week slightly lower than where it opened, and is flirting with a technical breakdown. Shares have formed a descending triangle above the 50 day EMA and prior support at 1,330, along with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the 1,290 to 1,370 range.. A break past 1,350 is needed to break the short term trend lower and make a push to new highs around 1,375 in a bigger picture rising wedge. If we can break to 1,375/1,380, the 1,400 target may not be achieved initially, and we could see a push back towards 1,300/1,250 in seasonally weak months of trading, possibly with resistance at 1,400, the next Fibonacci extension. In the near term of a break of 1,330 we would lose a long term trend from last August, and 1,300 is the initial target with the April lows and 100 day EMA, while 1,280 is a Fibonacci support level, and the 200 day EMA at 1,250 is major support, also the March lows. I also see 1,312 as a minor support level as a gap fill from April 20th, and a Fibonacci level. A buy signal near term would confirm with a break past 1,350 and the RSI breaking above 50. The 50,100 and 200 day EMAs are all rising with a bullish slope, while the 20 day EMA is flattening and a potential bearish cross of the 20 day EMA with the 10 day EMA from above is worth watching as a bearish signal.

Conclusion: Buy Above 1,350 with RSI > 50 with 1,380 Target; Fade a 1,400 Target with Stop at 1,410 and Target to 1,350/1,325/1,300/1,250; Sell Below 1,330 with 1,300 Target; If 1,250 is Seen, Load Up Aggressively!